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The Risk Domain Investors Rarely Price Into Country-Code Domains

The Risk Domain Investors Rarely Price Into Country-Code Domains

When I'm sizing up a country-code extension, I run the same checks everybody else runs. Are there real sales, or just the same three comps getting passed around? Are actual businesses using it, or is the whole zone parked? What's renewal going to cost me if I hold for five years?

Here's what has never once made that list. The country.

Montenegro just gave me a reason to add it.

On August 2, the office of Montenegro's deputy prime minister for economic policy announced the government had kicked off the process of creating a state-owned company to manage .me. The statement called the extension one of the country's most valuable digital resources and said pulling management back toward the state would strengthen Montenegro's "digital sovereignty," with more of the money staying home and getting spent there.

There's real money in the sentence. Government policy documents from May, reported by Domain Incite, estimate .me brings in around €10.1 million a year, and the state's stated position is that it should be taking more than half the profits.

The registry's own numbers explain why anyone cares. .ME says it has more than 1.1 million domains registered across 220-plus countries through a network of 330-plus registrars. The extension has been run since a 2007 government tender by doMEn, a joint venture of GoDaddy, Afilias (now Identity Digital), and Montenegro-based ME-net. Public registration opened in July 2008.

Eighteen years later, Montenegro looks at that arrangement and sees an asset somebody else is monetizing. Hard to blame them.

I don't think this means anybody should start dumping .me names. That's not where I'm going with this.

What I keep chewing on is that every ccTLD carries something none of us put in our appraisal spreadsheets. Call it sovereign risk. There's a government sitting behind the extension, and governments change their minds.

Think about .ai, .io, .co, .me. Once one of these goes global we quietly reclassify it in our heads as just another extension. We compare sales. We watch reg counts. We argue about which keywords carry.

But they're country codes. The rules behind them belong to somebody.

We got a loud reminder of that on July 13, when t.me went dark. Telegram's short-link domain got hit with a serverHold at the registry level, which yanked it out of the DNS entirely and broke every t.me link on the internet for about nineteen hours. Telegram itself kept working. Pavel Durov posted about it. Anyone who knew to swap in telegram.me could still get where they were going, and most people didn't know that.

The cause was OFAC. On the same day, Treasury sanctioned a Ukraine-based outfit called First VPN Service that had been selling anonymity infrastructure to ransomware crews, and the sanctions listing included a t.me channel URL as one of the group's contact addresses. One channel. The registry said publicly the domain went on hold "due to the OFAC compliance," and the hold came off the following day.

Now here's the part I think matters most, and it's the opposite of what you'd expect from a story about Montenegro.

Montenegro didn't do that. The U.S. Treasury did, and a Montenegrin registry with American partners moved fast to comply. So the sovereign whose rules reached out and touched a billion people's links wasn't the one on the flag. It was the one where the registry operators are headquartered.

That's a messier lesson than "watch out for small countries." Two governments can have a say in the same extension, and the second one isn't listed anywhere on the registry's About page.

If you own one .me name, none of this changes your week.

If you're holding two thousand names in a single ccTLD, I think it belongs in the math somewhere.

We talk about diversification constantly, and we almost always mean keywords and extensions. There's another layer under that. If a big chunk of your portfolio depends on one country's domain policy staying friendly to investors, and on nobody else's policy reaching in sideways, that's concentration risk whether we've named it or not.

None of this makes ccTLD investing a bad idea. Some of these extensions built genuine global markets precisely because the two letters happened to mean something enormous outside their borders. That's the whole .me story. It's the whole .ai story too.

And .ai is a decent example of how quickly the terms can move. In March, Anguilla's registry took the wholesale price from $140 to $160 on the two-year term. Fourteen percent, one announcement, and the island now covers close to half its government budget with domain revenue. Nobody voted on that but Anguilla.

So there's one more question I've started asking before I go heavy into a two-letter extension. Not just whether I believe in the letters. Whether I'm comfortable with whoever gets to change the rules, and with whoever can lean on those people from somewhere else.

I don't know how the Montenegro situation lands. Neither does anyone else right now, and the announcement didn't come with a timeline. Renewals and transfers are running normally, and I'd expect them to keep running normally for a good while.

But the next time I'm about to build a position in a ccTLD, I'm going to spend ten minutes reading up on who actually operates the registry and who can overrule them. Ten minutes is cheap. I've spent longer than that arguing about a hyphen.

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